The Gambler's Fallacy; the Essential Facts

If you've never heard of the gambler's fallacy, it's about time you do, because it is a concept that has afflicted scores of land based players, and continues to plague even those that compete online. Although this myth is widespread, you can ward it off by knowing exactly what it is about.

To understand this gambling myth, you need to go back to the basics and look at the odds. Assume that you are holding a coin, and when you flipped it, "heads" came up. Now what were the odds of that taking place? 50/50 of course. Suppose you toss it up again; will it be tails this time?

The answer is no; the odds will still be 50/50 because this is a "new" toss up. The coin does not remember that it just flipped up a head and that according to the gambling odds, it should now turn up tails.

If this still doesn't explain the gambler's fallacy, let's take it further: suppose the coin flip produces seven consecutive tails, do the gambling odds indicate heads is next in line, or will the streak continue? Neither, because again, each flip is unrelated to the other. If these tosses were somehow linked, then you can make a bet for heads. But they're not, so the odds of getting another tail is still the same as when you first tossed the coin.

This is what the gambling fallacy is all about; the false belief that an event in the past can influence what will happen in the future. No matter what you may read, there is no such thing as a "pattern" of events; whether you are playing Roulette, pulling levers on the slots or tossing dice on the Craps table, there just isn't any.

Needless to say this also applies to online gambling, as the laws of probabilities that govern land based casino games also apply there. Yet you'd be surprised at how many people still cling to this myth instead of working out more legitimate tactics.

The gambler's fallacy can be summed up in one sentence: gambling games have no memory and don't influence the outcome of the succeeding games. Yet despite this fact, a lot of people still fall for it, either out of ignorance or just simply wanting to rely on luck.

To be a winning casino gambler, you need to work on other more sound strategies, and also dispel inefficient ones. And the first one you should muck should be the gambler's fallacy.